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Fantasy Spins: Tips for your Playoff Pools
4.3.04 Writing an article about playoff pools is difficult stuff. The problem lies in the fact that there are so many different formats that they can take. Many office pools can feature tens, if not hundreds of participants; whereas others might only consist of a dozen. Throw in the fact that this will probably be the tightest playoff race that the NHL has seen in years and things get downright hard. As a result, I decided that rather than spending the whole time justifying my picks, I would instead construct a general guide to help you along in your quest for success. Keep in mind that as of this writing, the final playoff seeds are yet to be determined. Wait until the final results are in before choosing your team. The NHL 2004 Playoffs As there are often casual fans without a great deal of hockey knowledge participating in these pools, I felt it might be worth noting the state of this year’s NHL Stanley Cup drive. Without exaggeration, this year’s playoffs will be the most wide open competition the NHL has seen in years. While the Eastern Conference has traditionally been somewhat challenging to predict, things have always been much easier to size up in the West. For the past five to ten years, anyone with even a passing interest in hockey would be able to predict that one of Detroit, Colorado or Dallas would probably be in the final four. Those days are over. While Detroit and Colorado remain offensive juggernauts, their goaltending is highly suspect. Both the Wings and the Avalanche come into the post-season with goalies that have little to no playoff experience. Although they remain well positioned to make the final cut, they are not the sure bets they once were. Only Dallas and possibly San Jose come into this year’s post season with proven goaltending aces (although Calgary’s Miikka Kiprusoff has been outstanding this season.) As for the East, well take your pick. Apart from perhaps the Islanders, ANYBODY can come out of the Eastern Conference this year. It is that close. If the post-season is so tight then, how can we predict who to take in our playoff pools? Predicting a team’s performance even under the best of circumstances is challenging, as evidenced by last year’s shocking early round upsets of both Detroit and Colorado. Despite the close shave however, you can still make a run for the championship. In fact, you may even be able to use the tight race to your advantage. Pick Teams before you pick players Eliminate players from teams that you feel have little chance of going anywhere. Markus Naslund might be the best player in the NHL, but if the Canucks fail to make it past the first round, he’s not going to do your team any good. An average player that lasts four rounds into the playoffs will probably accumulate more points than a star whose team is eliminated in four straight. The Canucks looked like sure-fire contenders coming into this post season, but with the recent loss of Todd Bertuzzi, they now look like also-rans. Unless you’re in a deep pool, I would avoid them. Choose players that are on squads that you feel will go at least one or two rounds. Additionally, consider the matchups that teams will have in their first round. As it stands today, Ottawa will be facing Toronto. Both are solid contenders with a legitimate shot at going to the Cup. Do you want to wager your pool on one or the other? Many people will load up on Senators or Leafs only to find themselves eliminated after only one round. Beware the risks of choosing players from teams with a tough first round adversary. Consider taking a player or two from teams with seemingly easy first round opponents. The Lightning for example, should be able to take care of the Islanders. If the matchups remain as they are, Tampa Bay has a much greater chance for first round success than either Toronto or Ottawa. Even if the Lightning are eliminated in the second round, eight-plus games of Martin St. Louis and company is probably worth taking a chance on. Know the rules of your pool This may sound silly, but you’d be surprised how many people enter into a pool without knowing the rules. Depending on how your league is set up, you may be able to draft goalies with extra points for shutouts and wins. Other pools may feature points for penalty minutes or game winning goals. Use these categories to your advantage. Some pools for example, put a higher emphasis on goals than assists. If this is the case, find a way to capitalize. If forced to choose between playmaker Doug Weight and sniper Keith Tkachuk, go with the goal-scorer. Exploiting the rules to your advantage can take your team a long way. Consider the type of pool you will be participating in. How many people are competing? Is it a draft format or can everyone choose the same players? Will there be a hundred participants or only 10? How you answer these questions will have a great impact on the way you should go about picking your team. Take into consideration the number of people in your league. If you’re in a pool with a couple of hundred participants for example, you will probably have to accumulate a tremendous amount of points to come out on top. Go for broke and draft players only from the two teams you think will make it to the finals (along with perhaps a couple of stars from your predicted semi-finalist squads.) While there’s risk in drafting players from only two teams, without this strategy, you will be hard pressed to win against such a great number of competitors. Conversely, in smaller pools, I’ve found success in spreading out my picks over four contenders with a couple of one-off players from teams that I thought might be dark horses. The playoff race is tight this year, so use the situation to your advantage. Taking those few extra dark horse players can be deal breakers if the favorites go down early (such as Detroit and Colorado did last year.) Unless you’re in a pool with a large group of people, don’t go putting all of your eggs in the baskets of two teams. Not this year Don’t forget players/teams with a history of winning in the playoffs: No, that doesn’t mean you should draft geezers like Ron Francis or Chris Chelios. It means that you shouldn’t forget about the fact that the Devils, Red Wings and Avalanche have proven players that have gone all the way to the Cup in recent years. Players like Joe Sakic and Martin Brodeur have proven time and again that they are up to the post-season challenge. They’ve been through it all before and are tried tested and true. Remember that when you make your picks. Think about goaltending: Does your league count goalie stats? Are shutouts valued more than wins? Consider looking at teams with a great defensive system. The Devils may not make it to the finals, but if Brodeur puts up enough shutouts, you may just be able to come out ahead on the goaltending stats. Think about it. Next Week: As the final standings will be set, I’ll be back with my top 20 playoff picks, along with my choice for top goalie. See you then!
Matt Brady is the Fantasy Hockey content manager for FantasyRef.com, a FREE Fantasy Sports site designed by the guys at FantasyAsylum.com. Questions or comments?: slapshotscores@yahoo.com Archives:
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